Building A Thesis

A Bitcoin thesis is not a price target. It’s not “Bitcoin will reach $500,000.” Price targets tell you nothing useful when the price is falling.

A useful thesis is a statement about what Bitcoin is and why it will matter over a relevant time horizon — expressed in terms that remain true regardless of what the price is doing on any given day.

Here’s what a robust thesis looks like, assembled from the building blocks of the past 170 days:

Bitcoin is a fixed-supply monetary asset with properties that no other asset in history has combined: digital, portable, divisible, unseizable, and verifiably scarce. It was created in direct response to the failure of the existing monetary system to protect the value of savings. It has survived fifteen years of crashes, hacks, bans, and fraud — and its core properties have not changed once.

The global adoption of any monetary technology takes decades. Bitcoin’s adoption, measured by wallets, institutional holdings, regulatory recognition, and infrastructure, has been consistently growing since 2009. If that adoption continues — not guaranteed, but the trajectory has been consistent — the price will reflect it over a sufficiently long horizon.

This thesis says nothing about the price next month. It says something about what Bitcoin is and whether the conditions that give it value are intact.

Checking that thesis against reality is simple: is the supply cap still 21 million? Is the network still running? Is adoption still growing? If yes — the thesis is intact, regardless of price.

Tomorrow: a story — what 2022 felt like for someone who held through it.

— The Daily Bit