Two Investors

In 2017, two colleagues — call them Rachel and Ben — both put $10,000 into Bitcoin at roughly the same price. Same amount. Same moment. Same asset.

Rachel had spent six months reading before she bought. She understood why Bitcoin had a fixed supply, what the halving meant, why the 2017 run felt like a bubble to her even as it was happening. She wrote down her thesis in a notebook: this is a multi-year bet on a new form of sound money. I’m not touching it for five years regardless of what happens.

Ben had heard about Bitcoin from Rachel. He didn’t do much reading — the price was going up and that was enough. He put in $10,000 excited about the gains.

By December 2017, both of them had $90,000 on paper. Rachel’s notebook said “don’t touch it.” Ben called Rachel, thrilled, and asked if he should sell.

She said she was holding. He decided to wait a little longer.

By February 2018, it was $60,000. Ben held. By June 2018, it was $30,000. He started to panic but held. By December 2018 it was $9,000. Ben sold. He’d turned $10,000 into $9,000 and lost a year of stress for the privilege.

Rachel held through all of it. She didn’t enjoy the 2018 crash. But her notebook said five years, and she trusted the thesis more than the price.

By 2022, her $10,000 was worth over $400,000 at peak. Through the subsequent crash and recovery, she still held a position worth multiples of her original investment.

Same starting point. Same asset. The difference wasn’t luck — it was whether the investment came with a framework that could survive the hard part.

Tomorrow: the critics’ best arguments — honestly engaged.

— The Daily Bit