Is It Too Late?

This question has been asked at every price Bitcoin has ever reached.

In 2011, when Bitcoin hit $1, people said it was too late — it had already gone from pennies.
In 2013, at $100, too late.
In 2017, at $1,000, definitely too late.
At $10,000, obviously too late.
At $20,000, $50,000, $100,000 — too late at every single milestone.

And yet — anyone who picked some up at any of those “too late” prices and held for four years came out well ahead.

The “too late” feeling comes from comparing today’s price to yesterday’s. But that’s not the relevant comparison. The relevant comparison is today’s price versus what it might be worth in five or ten years, relative to the alternatives.

Bitcoin’s adoption curve is still early. Roughly 300 million people worldwide own some Bitcoin — about 4% of the global population. Gold has been accumulated by humans for 5,000 years. The US dollar took decades to achieve global reserve status.

If Bitcoin eventually holds even a fraction of the wealth currently sitting in gold, real estate, and depreciating currencies — the people who study this closely say it’s still early days. Not a guarantee. Just where the adoption numbers currently point.

Nobody knows the future. Bitcoin could fail. But “too late” assumes the journey is nearly over. The adoption numbers suggest it’s barely started.

Tomorrow: “what actually gives Bitcoin value?” — answered properly, not with a hand wave.

— The Daily Bit