The Long Game

Bitcoin has been around since 2009. In financial terms, that’s still very young.

Gold took centuries to establish itself as the global standard for sound money. The US dollar took decades to achieve reserve currency status. The internet — a technology that now underpins most of the global economy — spent its first twenty years being dismissed, misunderstood, or declared dead after every major crash.

Bitcoin’s trajectory, if it continues, is measured in decades — not months or years.

This changes how you think about short-term price movements. A 30% drop over three months is genuinely scary if you’re thinking in months. It’s a minor footnote if you’re thinking in decades.

It also changes how you think about entry points. People who obsess over whether to buy now, or wait for a dip, or hold cash until the next crash, are optimising for a timeframe that may not be relevant to the thesis they actually hold.

If the thesis is that Bitcoin is a new form of sound money gradually being adopted by a growing share of the global population — and you believe that thesis plays out over twenty years — then the difference between buying this week and buying next month is essentially noise.

None of this makes Bitcoin a certainty. Every long game carries the risk of being wrong. The internet produced Amazon. It also produced thousands of companies that no longer exist.

The long game is just a framework. What you do with it is a personal decision.

Tomorrow: what Phase 4 covers — Bitcoin in daily life.

— The Daily Bit