The Next Decade

Nobody can tell you what Bitcoin will be worth in ten years. Anyone who says otherwise is either lying or deluded.

But you can look at the direction of travel and ask: if current trends continue, what does that imply?

Institutional adoption has a clear trajectory. From one company in 2020 to ETFs in retirement accounts in 2024. The next step is pension funds allocating meaningfully — not 0.1%, but 1-3%. Sovereign wealth funds following. Governments adding Bitcoin to official reserves. Each of these is already beginning.

Regulatory clarity is improving. The US ETF approval, the EU’s MiCA framework, Gulf state regulation — the direction is toward rules rather than prohibition. That makes the asset more accessible to the capital pools that have been waiting for clarity.

The halving cycle continues. The 2028 halving reduces the block reward to 1.5625 Bitcoin. New supply entering the market falls further. The supply squeeze mechanism operates as designed.

Adoption in emerging markets continues regardless of institutional developments. In countries with failing currencies, Bitcoin’s use case doesn’t depend on Wall Street’s blessing. It depends on whether it protects savings better than the local alternative. In most of those countries, it does.

The technology matures. Lightning becomes more reliable, more accessible, more integrated into payment infrastructure. The user experience improves. The friction of getting in decreases.

None of this is guaranteed. A major technical failure, a coordinated global regulatory response, or a superior alternative could change any of these trajectories.

But if the next decade looks like a continuation of the last five years — slower, more institutional, more regulated, more widely held — the implications for Bitcoin’s role in the global monetary system are significant.

Tomorrow: it’s never too late. The definitive case.

— The Daily Bit