Its Never Too Late

The “too late” objection has been made at every price Bitcoin has ever traded at.

At $1: too late, the early adopters already have all of it.
At $100: too late, the bubble has already run.
At $1,000: too late, I missed the move.
At $10,000: too late, it’s already too expensive.
At $69,000: too late, it’s clearly peaked.
At $100,000: too late.

Every person who said “too late” at every one of those levels and stayed out was, in retrospect, wrong — at least for any four-year time horizon.

The “too late” feeling comes from thinking about Bitcoin as a trade — something you get in at the bottom and out at the top. From that framing, every point above the bottom feels like it’s too late.

But if Bitcoin is a savings technology — a place to store value in a fixed-supply asset as the world gradually recognises what it is — then the question isn’t whether you’re early or late. The question is whether the adoption curve still has room to run.

At current Bitcoin prices, approximately 100-200 million people in the world hold some Bitcoin. The world has 8 billion people. Global institutional adoption is in its early stages. The pension fund wave hasn’t arrived. Sovereign wealth funds are dipping their toes in. Most of the world’s population has never held a satoshi.

If Bitcoin continues its adoption trajectory — not to hyperbitcoinization, but to something like gold’s role in the global monetary system — the people buying today are still early by historical standards.

“Too late” has never been correct in Bitcoin’s history. It may be eventually. It doesn’t appear to be now.

Tomorrow: Part 9B enters its final stretch — the close begins.

— The Daily Bit