Should I Sell Half

The most common question from people who’ve held Bitcoin through a significant gain: should I sell half?

It’s the right question to be asking. It shows that someone is thinking about their position size, their goals, and the risk of holding a concentrated position through the next cycle. These are all sensible things to think about.

Here’s how experienced holders tend to frame it.

First: what is the gain relative to the original thesis? If someone bought Bitcoin as a multi-decade savings vehicle and the price has 10x’d in two years, selling half doesn’t necessarily contradict the thesis — it’s taking some chips off the table while the core position remains intact.

Second: what would you do with the proceeds? If “sell half” means “convert to cash” in a high-inflation environment, you might be solving one problem (concentration risk) by creating another (inflation risk). If it means rebalancing into other assets or funding a specific goal, that’s different.

Third: what does your position size feel like? If you’re checking the price five times a day, unable to sleep during drawdowns, anxious about every headline — your position might be larger than you can genuinely hold with conviction. Reducing to a size that lets you hold calmly through the worst scenarios is a legitimate reason to sell some.

Fourth: where are you in the cycle? Long-term holders describe being more comfortable taking partial profit near cycle tops — when MVRV is elevated, when FOMO is widespread, when everyone is bullish — than during accumulation phases.

Nobody can answer this question for anyone else. But those are the questions worth sitting with before deciding.

Tomorrow: bridge to Part 6 — what comes next.

— The Daily Bit